Alerts & Impact Analysis

Decision-makers must face the cruel reality of a fast-changing business environment today. Natural disasters, changes in government policy, raw material prices and competitive landscape among other things keep bankers and industry leaders on their toes. A team of analysts and economists at SMERA Knowledge Center aims to provide an independent and unbiased account of such events and their impact on businesses and the Indian economy. We believe such analysis and alerts can play a vital role in mitigating risks arising from such events.

7th Dec 18Indian economy likely to rebound strongly as negative factors waning
6th Dec 18Commentary: RBI MPC 5th Bi-Monthly Meeting; Despite maintaining a hawkish stance, while the MPC sees some upside risk due to geo-political and commodity risks, the tone of its note is sterile and devoid of caution
30th Nov 18New back series reveals that India grew slower than previously accepted
23rd Nov 18Domestic liquidity may improve with the appreciation of Indian rupee against the USD
21st Nov 18Commentary: RBI November Board Meeting
16th Nov 18Trade deficit likely to reduce with the fall in oil price
14th Nov 18Profitability of firms will be healthy in second half of FY19
13th Nov 18October Inflation number cools further as food continues to be a major deflator
2nd Nov 18PMI Index for October 2018 gives a sense of firms’ optimistic view on future demand
1st Nov 18India Jumps to 77th Position in World Bank Ease of Doing Business Rankings 2019
31st Oct 18Effective implementation of new Agro Export Policy imperative for increasing India’s global footprint
26th Oct 18Growth driving sectors in Q2 FY19: Our assesment
22nd Oct 18Improvement in exports and tempered external consumption has helped lowering trade deficit
17th Oct 18Poor performance of primary goods segment compensated by imports
15th Oct 18Higher weightage to food items is artificially suppressing the inflationary trend
12th Oct 18NRI deposits highest since FY14; May help stabilizing exchange rate and liquidity scenario
11th Oct 18Net foreign inflows recover in FY19 YTD but remain susceptible to global volatility
10th Oct 18OBICUS Survey on Manufacturing Sector sees finished goods inventories coming down substantially but raw material inventories are being shored up as risk of price increase looms
9th Oct 18Global sector PMI index for September signifying strong global growth; India specific sectors such IT, Pharma, Chemicals and Banking record solid performance
5th Oct 18MPC holds Repo rate at 6.50% but signals an end to its neutral stance
4th Oct 18Infrastructure push help maintain consistent Core Industries expansion; Cement, electricity, steel and petro refinery record solid YoY and YTD growth
1st Oct 18Manufacturing PMI maintains momentum on the back of new orders and robust inventory turnover; Rising inputs costs remain a concern though
28th Sep 18Net LAF maysoon turn positive along with RBI’s Open Market Operations as banks scramble for liquidity; WACR/Repo differential turns negative
26th Sep 18At 69%, PSBs rapidly losing market share to Private Banks as well as RRBs; Incremental deposit mobilization for PSBs is currently recorded at only 12%
25th Sep 18Increased domestic borrowings has put pressure on systemic liquidity; WACR/ Repo differential at 4 bps evokes liquidity pressures
24th Sep 18Driven by high CV sales and consistent PV sales, demand for automobiles is growing faster than production over the past three years
21st Sep 18Domestic steel makers unable to meet strong demand. Still lag in pricing and production efficiencies due to input cost escalations, poor logistics and slower technology upgrade
20th Sep 18States facing tremendous pressure from Negative Carry, that now stands at 183 bps
19th Sep 18Depreciating Rupee has successfully reduced India’s Non-Petroleum trade deficit by $500 million
17th Sep 18Intermediate Goods data does not corroborate with solid Consumer Goods performance
14th Sep 18Headline inflation deflated by healthy supply of seasonal vegetables
12th Sep 18Contribution of lower duration debt among public maturity bucket, highest in three years
10th Sep 18A strengthened e-NAM critical for India’s farm income security & obviating the need for wasteful compensatory Government expenditure
8th Sep 18India’s economy becoming more energy efficient; Lower units of energy required for every incremental Rupee worth of GDP
7th Sep 18Fertilizer imports increase by 64% in value terms and 27.5% in unit terms in YTD FY19
4th Sep 18Trump led trade wars may be benefiting Indian manufacturing at the cost of China
3rd Sep 18Favorable base effect drives Core industry July, FY19 results; Steel and Electricity an exception
31st Aug 18Q1 FY19 GDP Numbers
29th Aug 18Kharif Season Estimates of Agro Production
28th Aug 18Bank asset size has significant influence on its financial performance
24th Aug 18Rising coal import bill
22nd Aug 18July Trade Data
21st Aug 18Impact Assessment of Kerala Floods 2018
20th Aug 18July Inflation Number
13th Aug 18IIP Data for June 2018
10th Aug 18US Forex Reserves a Proxy of Dollar Strength
9th Aug 18RBI Dividend Payout to the Government of India
7th Aug 18Impact Assessment of 14th Finance Commission on States (Part 1/2)
6th Aug 18RBI’s Forward Looking Surveys
3rd Aug 18June 2018 Core Industry and July PMI Data
2nd Aug 18RBI MPC raises REPO by 25 bps
1st Aug 18Rupee’s value shedding has been third worst among peers
31st Jul 18Double digit growth in select sectors driven by strong consumption in Q1 FY19
30th Jul 18Manufacturing MSME export share increases
26th Jul 18Reduction of GST on over 50 items
25th Jul 18Impact of MSP on agro industry and realizable prices
24th Jul 18Indian 10 Year Government Debt Yields
23rd Jul 18India Trade Data, June, 2018 and YTD FY19
11th Jun 18Rs. 4.5 lakh Cr. lending opportunity for NBFCs and private sector banks
11th Jun 18Acuité Ratings & Research Note: Capital Goods drives Q4 GDP Growth, which stands at 7.7%
8th Jun 18Acuite Rating & Research Note: RBI MPC’s second bi-monthly monetary policy statement
20th Apr 18Municipal bonds set for a gradual take-off
9th Feb 18MSME’s Financing Landscape Set to Undergo a Transformation
6th Feb 18Budget strong on intent - Implementation is the key to growth sustainability
31st Jan 18SMERA Pre-Budget Commentary - FY 2018-19
12th Dec 17SMERA view on Fifth bi-monthly MPC meet
4th Dec 17Q2 GDP growth signals economic revival
29th Nov 17Credit offtake hints at recovery in business activities
20th Nov 17Rating upgrade reinforces strength of Indian economy
16th Nov 17Sept IIP nos reflect solid growth of manufacturing sector
13th Nov 17Further steps on GST to boost consumption
25th Oct 17Banks’ recapitalisation package positive for the economy
9th Oct 17Significant relief for MSMEs in GST structure
4th Oct 17Core sector marks recovery in industrial production
3rd Oct 17Key macro variables
28th Sep 17Analysis: Stronger export growth to benefit MSMEs
25th Sep 17Monsoon report: Food grain output growth looks positive
15th Sep 17CPI likely to remain firm in H2, 2017
13th Sep 17Tyre and automobile industry may face margin pressure
9th Sep 17Cattle Feed industry likely to witness strong demand
7th Sep 17Impact Analysis: Appreciation of rupee - impact on MSMEs
1st Sep 17Commentary: Consumption to drive India’s GDP growth
28th Aug 17Analysis: Corporate bond issuances by cos show growth
23rd Aug 17Impact Analysis: Engineering sector may have a trade surplus by end of FY18
18th Aug 17Impact Analysis: SAMPADA scheme will play a major role in shoring up Agricultural capacity utilization levels
17th Aug 17SMERA Commentary: Economic Survey, Volume II, 2016-17
14th Aug 17Impact Analysis: Industrial production index - June, 2017
10th Aug 17Impact Analysis: World Economic Outlook
4th Aug 17Monsoon Report July 2017
2nd Aug 17SMERA Commentary: Third RBI Bi-Monthly Policy Meeting
1st Aug 17Impact Analysis: India’s coal production and import will fall due to bettering station heat rate
29th Jul 17Impact Analysis: Anti-Dumping Duty
27th Jul 17Impact Analysis: Cotton production sets record over the previous years.
23rd Jul 17FDI in India: Modi must address regional disparities for economic growth
21st Jul 17Impact Analysis: Sports Industry and post GST scenario
17th Jul 17Impact Analysis: India’s trade balance remains steady at -$12.9 bn
13th Jul 17SMERA Commentary: Consumer Price Index & IIP: June, 2017
11th Jul 17Impact Analysis: Industry Status to Agriculture Sector
8th Jul 17Impact Analysis: Benefits of Indo-Israel Partnership to be pan-industry
4th Jul 17SMERA Commentary: Cement Industry recovers post demonetisation with a 1.5% production growth in May ‘17
28th Jun 17Monsoon Report June, 2017
24th Jun 17Impact Analysis: In FY15/16, operating expenses grew much slower as compared to profits for Indian corporate
21st Jun 17Impact Analysis: Performance of Non-Government Non-Financial Private Companies in the previous two financial years remained uneventful
19th Jun 17SMERA Commentary: India's Insolvency and Bankruptcy Framework
16th Jun 17Impact Analysis: Fed rate hike unlikely to impact capital flows and exchange rate over the medium term
14th Jun 17Impact Analysis: IIP numbers suffer due to persistently high inventory levels in the system
9th Jun 17SMERA Commentary: RBI’s second bi-monthly monetary policy statement
5th Jun 17Impact Analysis: A larger WPI deflator responsible for lower than expected Q4 growth.
29th May 17Impact Analysis: Government's New Procurement Policy
26th May 17Impact Analysis: China’s current capacity cut downs and lower inventories helping Indian exports
23rd May 17Impact Analysis: GST & Select Sectors (Part 1)
19th May 17Cotton spot to breach Rs, 45,000 per candy threshold
17th May 17Impact Analysis: Appreciating Rupee may be encouraging imports; India’s trade deficit reaches a 28 month high
15th May 17Impact Analysis: Capital Goods category's ‘Work in Progress’ perspective will change the way we look at this category
13th May 17Impact Analysis: Expansion of Core inflation a cause of concern because its build-up can be relentless, as indicated by a low standard deviation.
11th May 17SMERA Commentary: Credit Offtake marginally improves in April 2017 after bottoming out in February
9th May 17Impact Analysis: French Election results point towards ECB raising rates in the near term
5th May 17SMERA Commentary: Banking Regulation Act amendment will help break the Twin Balance Sheet deadlock currently faced by the economy
4th May 17SMERA Commentary: FY17 may end with a solid industrial growth in Q4
2nd May 17Cement Industry contracts first time in 12 years.
29th Apr 17Impact Analysis: India’s Defense capital expenditure is set to increase by over 80% by 2020
28th Apr 17Impact Analysis: Profitability of food processing industry has been improving as Indian FPI declines compared to Global average
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